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Dividual posterior

Operates Proposition 4' · posterior contraction at the parametric rate

Var(Pi_t) vs tick t (log-log)10^-410^-310^-210^-110^010^010^110^2parametric rate ~ 1/tPi_t over u (contracting around true u_t*)u_t*u
tick t
1
Var(Pi_t)
1.00e+0
posterior sigma
1.000

The platform's filtering posterior contracts on the user state at the parametric rate . Left: posterior variance decay on log-log axes — the curve follows the parametric rate within a constant factor. Right: the posterior over user-state as a Gaussian density contracting around the true (oxblood vertical line).

What the plate operates. Proposition 4' gives the classical parametric-rate Bayesian posterior contraction under three conditions (prior support, testability via U2, KL-neighborhood prior mass). The plate visualizes the contraction directly.

The two parameters.

  • d (dimension). Higher-dimensional user-state spaces give larger posterior variance at the same sample size. The log term in grows slowly, so the parametric rate dominates; the curve shape is preserved across .
  • Effective-sample multiplier (axiom U1). (U1) gives a lower bound on the per-tick excitation probability . The effective sample size is . Increasing the multiplier accelerates contraction; decreasing it slows the rate.

What the proposition authorizes the prose to claim. The dividual is the user-state-as-jointly-observable. Identifiability is supplied by (U2); excitation is supplied by (U1); parametric stability is supplied by (R1)+(R2). Deleuze's dividual takes operational form here as the platform's filter at the converged regime — a formal object carrying the same weight as foreclosure. The user-state continues to be whatever the user is; the platform converges on the user's state in the standard Bayesian-posterior sense.

Cross-references

v2 dynamics plate — eighth plate.